The Bobby Cox Theory on Winning Division Titles

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One of my favorite websites is www.baseball-reference.com. I used this site to extract data for this posting.

I’ve been a Braves fan since I first received cable in the late seventies. Ted Turner broadcast all of the Brave’s games on his WTBS station out of Atlanta. At a time when only road games were televised in local markets, Turner thought that showing home crowds enjoying the effort of their team would make fans want to attend home games in person.

At the same time, WGN broadcasted all Cubs games out of Chicago. My cable station lineup included WTBS and not WGN. So, I became a Braves fan.

Over time, both WTBS and WGN lost the local broadcast rights. With internet access, I can still watch any game.

Since 1969, the start of division play, the Braves have won the most division titles,  21. Second, with 20 titles each, are the Yankees and Dodgers.

Hall of Famer Bobby Cox was the manager for 14 titles, and Brian Snitker managed the Braves to division titles for the past four years. Snitker has been in the Braves organization for the past 45 seasons and was a pupil of Cox’s organizational theories.

Cox was very good at winning regular-season titles. Two theories helped get his teams over the finish line first.

Break down the season into 54 three-game series. Make an effort to win each series, at least two of three games. If you can accomplish that, you will have won 108 games.

The second theory is to beat the teams you are supposed to beat. Looking at a 162 game schedule, a team plays 100 games against teams they are supposed to beat. If they can win 70% of those games, that is 70 wins. And, by winning half of their remaining games, they will have 101 wins, which, in most years, is enough to win their division.

In 2021, the Braves and Phillies played a similar number of games against the same opponents. Of the teams they were supposed to beat, the Braves won 61 of 100 games, and the Phillies only won 54. The Phillies finished seven games down in the loss column.

Also, in 2021, the Rays finished first in the American League East with 100 wins. Of the teams they were supposed to beat, they won 59 of 83 for 71% and 41 of 79 games against stiffer opponents. The AL East had four quality teams and made the Rays road more challenging to navigate.

Of the 21 division titles, the Braves have only one World Series in five attempts. During the same time, the Dodgers and Yankees have won 10 titles in their 19 attempts.

Great managers like Cox and Snitker win regular-season titles. Great pitching wins World Series titles.

I’m not holding my breath for the upcoming post-season. Go Braves.

 

 

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