We’ve all heard Aesop’s fable about the shepherd boy who cried wolf. He often cried “wolf,” and the villagers came to his rescue and found nothing. When a wolf finally arrived, the villagers thought he was lying and paid no attention to the determent of the sheep and shepherd. The moral of the story was, “this shows how liars are rewarded: even if they tell the truth, no one believes them.”
Have you ever heard the phrase, “we dodged a bullet on that one?” Did we dodge a bullet, or did the news media overhype or mispredict a forecast?
In the current media environment, producers are looking for clicks and eyeballs. Every hurricane, snowstorm, and thunderstorm is the end of the world.
Days before a storm, races are canceled, grocery stores are ransacked, and we worry about where the Chiefs will be playing the Bucs.
We see the live remotes on the beaches and reporters braving the elements.
After we dodge the second bullet, we believe the third will miss, too.
Once, I had a customer (Chico’s) headquartered in Fort Myers, Florida. That is the flattest location I have ever run. Even six miles inland, the elevation is only a few feet above sea level. A 20′ storm surge could flood house 10 miles off the coast.
Hurricane Ian hit the Florida West Coast on September 28 and swept across Florida. Even with the severe weather warnings, some residents did not leave the area. They left before and nothing happened, or they rode out prior storms. We’re yet to know the death toll.
I’m not saying weather people are liars. But, by exaggerating every storm’s severity, the ordinary person cannot make an informed decision.
I understand weather maps, probability cones, weather radar, wind direction, and tornado and hurricane severity codes. I know the difference between a watch and a warning. I understand most people are incapable of adequately preparing for a forecasted storm.
From a state and municipality perspective, they will declare a state of emergency with any chance of a destructive storm. Once called, predefined protocols go into effect. Some protocols include restrictions on porta-pots and police and EMT overtime requirements. So, with the forecast of a snowflake in West Virginia, races may need to be canceled for lack of resources.
Canceled or postponed races need to be able to cover the sunk costs, but they need to make participants whole, too. Past races canceled without refund or rescheduling have disappeared in future years.
Perhaps, it’s time to end the “sky is falling” newscasts and weather forecasts. And have NOAA produce a color-coded or numeric severity projection system that all media will use.