Election Math

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A couple of days ago, President Trump threw his hat in the ring for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Was this a tactic to avoid the January 6th committee subpoena? He could claim a politically motivated witchhunt.

I’m still trying to figure out the math from our Virginia 7th House election from November 8.

At 9 pm, 89% of the expected vote was reported. Rep Abigail Spanberger had 112,000 votes, and Yesli Vega had 118,000. Doing the math, there were only 28,000 votes left to be counted. For Rep Spanberger to catch Vega, she would need to get 17,000 votes which are 60%.

Later in the evening, Rep Spanberger had 139,000 votes to Vega’s 129,000. So, where did the extra 10,000 votes come from?

The math does not add up. The reporting of vote status leaves many people feeling that something is amiss. The same types of number may have led President Trump to feel the 2020 election was invalid.

At 9 pm, the reported percentage of expected votes should have been 85%, leaving 38,000 ballots to be counted, giving Rep Spanberger a more realistic projection.

It would be nice not to publish any results until all precincts have reported. Unlike other states, Virginia feeds mailed votes into the counting machine before election day. If we required absentee ballots postmarked two weeks before election day, almost 100% of the votes would be received and counted.

I guess we’re onto the next most important election of my life.

On another note, with the new district alignments, I’m now in the 7th district, and my daughter in west Henrico is now in the 1st district. Before 2022, I was in the 1st district, and she was in the 7th.

Rep Whitman, a resident of Montross, was reelected in the 1st district.

Rep Spanberger, a resident of Glen Allen, was reelected in the 7th district. Glen Allen is now in the 1st district.

It looks like a chop. I wonder, will Rep Spanberger move to Fredericksburg in early 2023?

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