Since 1961, major league baseball teams have played a 162-game schedule. After 162 games, the team with the most victories won the pennant or division. If two teams had the same number of wins, they would play a 163rd game to determine the champion.
Throughout the season, teams would not have played the same number of games because of off days or postponements. The daily standings would indicate the number of games behind with a simple calculation of ((games won by leader – games won by wannabe) + (games lost by wannabe – games lost by leader)) / 2.
That was nice for the daily standings. However, starting on August 1, the leader would always wonder how many games they needed to win to become champion. The main criterion in this calculation is games lost by both teams. No matter how many games remain, a team with more losses cannot overcome the leader unless the leader loses. The saying, “you cannot make up games in the loss column.”
With this in mind, we can calculate a magic number for the leader as (leader’s games remaining + games lost by leader – games lost by wannabee + 1). Whenever the leader wins a game, or the wannabee loses a game, the leader’s magic number is reduced by 1. When the leader’s magic number is zero, they can open the champagne and start singing a Queen song.
Of course, if the two teams are tied after the 162nd game, both teams’ magic number is 1. Until 2022, that would mean the 163rd game.
Starting this year, with established tie-breaking procedures, the 163rd game has been eliminated. The first tiebreaker is head to head competition.
As a long-time Braves’ fan, I write this with an interesting twist. Going into their game on October 2, the Mets and Braves are tied in their season series at nine wins each. The winner, on October 2, will hold the tiebreaker.
Before October 2, the Braves won 99 games and lost 58 with four games remaining, and the Mets won 98 games and lost 59 with four games remaining. Using our magic number logic, the Braves’ magic number is four, and the Mets’ magic number is 6.
Typically a Braves’ win on October 2 would drop their magic number to 2. However, holding the tiebreaker, their magic number drops to 1. A Braves’ loss on October 2 would lower the Mets’ magic number to 3.
In the days of the 14 straight division titles, I would get the whiteboard out on August 1 and start calculating the elimination number for the other 4 division teams. I must have too much time on my hands.
In my next post on baseball statistics, I’ll discuss WAR, whatever that means.